How Accurate Are Crop Forecasts - Forecast Errors Soybeans

Cornhusker Economics June 14, 2017Projecting Corn and Soybean Crops: How Accurate Are Crop Forecasts?

Figure 4: Soybeans – Average forecast errors in each month of the forecasting cycle for Argentina (ARG), Brazil (BRA), China (CHI) and United States (USA)

graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE production numbers

graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE domestic use numbers

graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE export numbers

graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE import numbers

graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE crushings numbers

aAverage forecast error is the average of all forecast errors in a given month across all years in our sample;
bNegative forecast errors imply underestimation, while positive forecast errors imply overestimation;
cMonth = 1 is June prior to the beginning of the crop year, month = 2 is July prior to the beginning of the crop year, ..…, month = 22 is March after the end of the crop year (the USDA still needs a few months after the end of the crop year to compile all the data and release final numbers for the crop year).

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