How Accurate Are Crop Forecasts - WASDE Table

Cornhusker Economics June 14, 2017Projecting Corn and Soybean Crops: How Accurate Are Crop Forecasts?

Figure 2: Example of supply and demand information on the WASDE report – Projections for the corn market in 2017/18

World Corn Supply and Use1

(Million Metric Tons)

2017/18 Proj.Beginning StocksProductionImportsDomestic FeedDomestic Total 2/ExportsEnding Stocks
World3  May 223.90 1,033.66 144.79 650.86 1,062.30 151.91 195.27
June 224.59 1,031.86 145.79 650.36 1,062.12 152.91 194.33
United States May 58.30 357.27 1.27 137.80 315.61 47.63 53.60
June 58.30 357.27 1.27 137.80 315.61 47.63 53.60
Total Foreign May 165.60 676.40 143.52 513.06 746.69 104.29 141.67
June 166.29 674.60 144.52 512.06 746.51 105.29 140.73
Major Exporters4 May 14.89 147.50 0.41 65.30 84.00 64.20 14.59
June 15.58 147.50 0.41 65.30 84.50 64.20 14.79
Argentina May 2.86 40.00 0.01 7.50 11.30 28.50 3.06
June 2.87 40.00 0.01 7.50 11.30 28.50 3.07
Brazil May 9.27 95.00 0.30 52.00 61.00 34.00 9.57
June 9.77 95.00 0.30 52.00 61.50 34.00 9.57
South Africa May 2.76 12.50 0.10 5.80 11.70 1.70 1.96
June 2.95 12.50 0.10 5.80 11.70 1.70 2.15
Major Importers5 May 21.61 124.27 84.30 152.80 206.05 3.93 20.19
June 21.61 122.77 85.30 152.70 205.75 3.93 19.99
Egypt May 2.11 6.00 10.00 13.40 15.90 0.01 2.20
June 2.11 6.00 10.00 13.40 15.90 0.01 2.20
European Union6 May 5.99 63.50 14.00 56.10 75.00 2.50 5.99
June 5.99 62.00 15.00 56.00 74.70 2.50 5.79
Japan May 1.24 - 15.00 11.50 15.10 - 1.15
June 1.24 - 15.00 11.50 15.10 - 1.15
Mexico May 6.41 25.00 15.50 22.70 40.70 0.70 5.51
June 6.41 25.00 15.50 22.70 40.70 0.70 5.51
Southeast Asia7 May 3.22 29.61 15.10 36.65 44.45 0.72 2.76
June 3.22 29.61 15.10 36.65 44.45 0.72 2.76
South Korea May 1.91 0.08 10.20 8.00 10.30 - 1.89
June 1.91 0.08 10.20 8.00 10.30 - 1.89
Selected Other
Canada May 2.42 15.20 0.80 8.50 14.10 1.50 2.82
June 2.42 14.40 0.80 8.50 14.10 1.50 2.02
China May 101.31 215.00 3.00 166.00 238.00 0.02 81.29
June 101.31 215.00 3.00 166.00 238.00 0.02 81.29
FSU-12 May 2.61 48.35 0.36 20.43 23.21 25.71 2.40
June 2.61 48.85 0.36 20.03 22.81 26.71 2.30
Ukraine May 1.24 28.00 0.03 7.00 8.40 20.00 0.86
June 1.24 28.50 0.03 6.90 8.30 20.50 0.96

1Aggregate of the local marketing years.
2Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.
3World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries.
4Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa.
5Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia.
6Trade excludes intra-trade.
7Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.


Source: USDA, June 2017 

Return to article