Cornhusker Economics January 13, 2016
2016 Nebraska Crop BudgetsThe 2016 Nebraska Crop Budgets are complete and available online at:
Four new budgets have been added for dryland corn production in eastern Nebraska.
The breakeven prices for 2016 are lower than they were in 2015 for every budget. The average decline in breakeven prices of the irrigated corn budgets is almost 24 cents per bushel; $4.42 in 2015 compared to $4.19 in 2016. (The apparent discrepancy in the math is because of rounding errors.) The break-even price for irrigated soybean budgets was 44 cents per bushel lower; $10.62 in 2015 compared to $10.18 in 2016.
Lower fuel cost is one reason for the decline in breakeven prices. The price used for fuel in 2015 was $3.25 per gallon compared to $2.25 per gallon in 2016. The fuel price for 2016 appears a little high now because it was obtained in October, 2015; but what it will be in the spring remains to be seen.
Fertilizer is another expense category where prices are lower in 2016 than they were in 2015. Nitrogen price is the main driver for this. The per-pound cost of nitrogen used in the budgets dropped from $0.55 per pound in 2015 to $0.47 per pound in 2016. Monoammonium phosphate has a lower proportion of nitrogen than any of the other fertilizers used in formulating the budgets and its price has changed the least over the past two years.
Prices for herbicides used in the budgets were mixed. Some of the prices for the products used in the budgets were higher and some lower. Some changed substantially, the changes in other price were more modest, and the prices used for some products were unchanged.
The prices for fungicides and insecticides used in the budgets either remained constant or increased modestly.
Land charges on the budgets are calculated by multiplying prices from University of Nebraska-Lincoln's Department of Agricultural Economics’ Farm Real Estate Report times 5% for opportunity cost plus 2% for an estimation of real estate taxes. The 2014-2015 report estimates of farmland prices decreased from a year earlier and these decreases showed up in the lower breakeven prices.
While decreased production costs are good news, they will not completely cover the reduced revenues from decreased crop prices. They do mitigate these revenue losses somewhat and may provide some optimism for the farm economy going forward. The following is a list of some selected budgets and their estimated breakeven prices.
|Budget Name||Breakeven||Per unit|
|9-Alfalfa, Large Round Bale, Dryland|
|10-Alfalfa, Large and Small Square Bale, Pivot Irrigated||113||per ton|
|11-Alfalfa, Roundup Ready®, Large and Small Square Bale, Pivot Irrigated||114||per ton|
|12-Alfalfa, Large and Small Square Bale, Pivot Irrigated||83||per ton|
|13-Alfalfa, Large Square Bale, Canal Irrigated||103||per ton|
|14-Alfalfa, Roundup Ready®, Large Square Bale, Canal Irrigated||103||per ton|
|15-Corn, Conventional Tillage, Continuous, 90 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||5.89||per bushel|
|16-Corn, Eastern Nebraska Conventional Tillage, Continuous, 155 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||5.1||per bushel|
|17-Corn, No-Till, Bt, ECB, RW & RR2, Continuous, 125 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||4.21||per bushel|
|18-Corn, Eastern Nebraska, No-Till, Bt, ECB, RW & RR2, Continuous, 170 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||4.22||per bushel|
|19-Corn, No-Till, SmartStax RIB Complete, Continuous, 130 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||4.11||per bushel|
|20-Corn, Eastern Nebraska No-Till, SmartStax RIB Complete, Continuous, 175 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||4.18||per bushel|
|21-Corn, No-Till, Bt & ECB, after Soybeans, 135 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||3.8||per bushel|
|22-Corn, Eastern Nebraska No-Till, Bt & ECB, after Soybeans, 180 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||3.91||per bushel|
|23-Corn, Ecofallow, Follows Wheat, Two Crops in Three Years, RR2, Bt & ECB, 125 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||3.75||per bushel|
|24-Corn, Ridge Till, Bt, ECB & RW, Continuous, 230 bu Yield Goal, Gravity Irrigated||4.16||per bushel|
|25-Corn, Ridge Till, SmartStax RIB Complete, Continuous, 240 bu Yield Goal, Gravity Irrigated||4.17||per bushel|
|26-Corn, Panhandle Continuous, SmartStax RIB Complete, 190 bu Yield Goal, Canal Irrigated||3.98||per bushel|
|27-Corn, No-Till, Bt, ECB & RW, Continuous, 240 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||4.1||per bushel|
|28-Corn, No-Till, SmartStax RIB Complete, Continuous, 250 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||4.04||per bushel|
|29-Corn, Bt, ECB & RW, Continuous, 230 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||4.43||per bushel|
|30-Corn, Panhandle, SmartStax RIB Complete, 190 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||4.57||per bushel|
|31-Corn, SmartStax RIB Complete, Continuous 240 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||4.41||per bushel|
|32-Corn, No-Till, Bt & ECB, after Beans, 240 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||3.84||per bushel|
|34-Dry Beans, Reduced Till with Wheat Cover Crop after Harvest, Pivot Irrigated||24||per cwt|
|35-Dry Beans, Conventional Tillage, Canal Irrigated||24||per cwt|
|36-Dry Beans, Conventional Tillage Using Pumped Water, Pivot Irrigated||25||per cwt|
|37-Dry Beans, Direct Harvest, Conventional Tillage Using Pumped Water, Pivot Irrigated||26||per cwt|
|38-Grain Sorghum, Conventional Tillage, 105 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||3.63||per bushel|
|39-Grain Sorghum, No-Till, 125 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||3.37||per bushel|
|40-Grain Sorghum, Ecofallow, After Wheat, Two Crops in Three Years, 115 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||3.25||per bushel|
|41-Grain Sorghum, No-Till, Limited Irrigation, 165 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||3.58||per bushel|
|50-Soybeans, Tilled Seed Bed, Roundup Ready® after Corn, Dryland||9.14||per bushel|
|51-Soybeans, No-Till, Roundup Ready® after Corn, Dryland||8.13||per bushel|
|52-Soybeans, No-Till, Roundup Ready®, Continuous, Dryland||8.83||per bushel|
|53-Soybeans, Tilled Seedbed, Roundup Ready® after Corn, Pivot Irrigated||10.72||per bushel|
|54-Soybeans, Ridge Till, Roundup Ready® after Corn, Gravity Irrigated||10.18||per bushel|
|55-Soybeans, No-Till 15-inch Row, Roundup Ready® after Corn, Pivot Irrigated||9.65||per bushel|
|56-Soybeans, Roundup Ready®, No-Till Narrow Row, Continuous, Pivot Irrigated||10.76||per bushel|
|57-Soybeans, No-Till Drilled 7.5-inch Rows, Roundup Ready® after Corn, Pivot Irrigated||9.61||per bushel|
|58-Sugarbeet, Panhandle, Roundup Ready®, One Pass Zone-Tillage, Canal Irrigated||35||per ton|
|59-Sugarbeet, Panhandle, Roundup Ready®, Conventional Tillage, Gravity Irrigated, Canal||35||per ton|
|60-Sugarbeet, Panhandle, Roundup Ready®, One Pass Zone-Tillage, Pivot Irrigated||38||per ton|
|61-Sugarbeet, Panhandle, Roundup Ready®, Conventional Tillage, Pivot Irrigated||38||per ton|
|62-Sunflower, Panhandle, No-Till, Following Corn or Grain Sorghum, Dryland||16.63||per cwt|
|63-Sunflower, Panhandle, Ecofallow, after Wheat, Two Crops in Three Years, Dryland||15.34||per cwt|
|64-Sunflower, Panhandle, No-Till, Pivot Irrigated||15.62||per cwt|
|65-Wheat, No-Till, Wheat after Row Crop, 50 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||6.08||per bushel|
|66-Wheat, No-Till Fallow, One Crop in Two Years, 60 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||6.72||per bushel|
|67-Wheat, Stubble Mulch Fallow, One Crop in Two Years, 55 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||7.13||per bushel|
|68-Wheat, Clean Till Fallow, One Crop in Two Years, 50 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||7.73||per bushel|
|69-Wheat, No-Till Wheat before Corn, Two Crops in Three Years, 65 bu Yield Goal, Dryland||6.03||per bushel|
|70-Wheat, No-Till after Beans, 100 bu Yield Goal, Pivot Irrigated||5.13||per bushel|
|71-Wheat, No-Till, in Rotation, Pivot Irrigated||5.72||per bushel|