Cornhusker Economics June 14, 2017Projecting Corn and Soybean Crops: How Accurate Are Crop Forecasts?
Figure 3: Corn – Average forecast errors in each month of the forecasting cycle for Argentina (ARG), Brazil (BRA), China (CHI) and United States (USA)
![graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE production numbers](cornhusker-economics/2017/forecast-error-corn-production.png)
![graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE domestic use numbers](cornhusker-economics/2017/forecast-error-corn-domestic-use.png)
![graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE export numbers](cornhusker-economics/2017/forecast-error-corn-exports.png)
![graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE import numbers](cornhusker-economics/2017/forecast-error-corn-imports.png)
![graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE feed numbers](cornhusker-economics/2017/forecast-error-corn-feed.png)
![graph depicting forecast errors of WASDE corn ending stocks](cornhusker-economics/2017/forecast-error-corn-ending-stocks.png)
bNegative forecast errors imply underestimation, while positive forecast errors imply overestimation;
cMonth = 1 is June prior to the beginning of the crop year, month = 2 is July prior to the beginning of the crop year, ..…, month = 22 is March after the end of the crop year (the USDA still needs a few months after the end of the crop year to compile all the data and release final numbers for the crop year).